What’s the Secret to Making a Great Prediction? (NSQ Ep. 53)

Also: how do you recover from a bad day?

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Relevant Research & References

Here’s where you can learn more about the people and ideas in this episode:


  • Philip Tetlock, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
  • Daniel Kahneman, professor of psychology at Princeton University.
  • Barbara Mellers, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania.
  • Richard Pine, Angela’s literary agent and co-founder of Inkwell Management.
  • Katy Milkman, professor of behavioral economics at the University of Pennsylvania.


  • How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be, by Katy Milkman (2021).
  • “This Self-Made Billionaire Failed the LSAT Twice, Then Sold Fax Machines for 7 Years Before Hitting Big — Here’s How She Got There,” by Gillian Zoe Segal (CNBC, 2019).
  • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015).
  • Thinking, Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman (2011).
  • “Economics – The Promise of Prediction Markets,” by Kenneth Arrow, Robert Forsythe, Michael Gorham, and Robert Hahn (Science, 2008).
  • Your Erroneous Zones: Step-by-Step Advice for Escaping the Trap of Negative Thinking and Taking Control of Your Life, by Wayne Dyer (1976).


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