The human was an unknown, in California, a new seismic early warning system


When a great earthquake struck Mexico City in September 2017, Allen Husker, the study of earthquakes in the National Autonomous University of Mexico, ducked under his Desk. Near the earthquake hit before school early warning alarm can even start ringing. However, almost everyone ran to the outside.

“I was the only person left in my office,”Haskell said. “There is a panic,”he added, noting that this is a dangerous race down the stairs when the world is violently shaking.

Event description a brief confusion might ensue in the temblors and the way different people—sometimes very different understanding about the seismic reaction in the same trembling.

California, recently launched the earthquake early warning program and the long-awaited new app, now you must also consider the emotional vagaries, sometimes the stubborn part of the system—a system that has the potential to prepare many lives.

“Unfortunately, you have to deal with humans and the way they are wired,”says Dennis leading CAD programs,a social scientist and former Director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado.

Now, the new is in the wild, when the vigilant humanity of an imminent earthquake, the major concern of the two seismologists the shelling machines of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, Elizabeth Cochran, of the observed earthquakes in the U.S. Geological Survey(USGS). They published an article in the magazine Science Last week the semi-finals of the tune, it remains largely unknown how people will respond when they get an earthquake warning on their phone. This is expected, of course, because it is a brand new system.

“We don’t have a lot of experience with this system,”said Cochran. “Not a lot of social science research on what people might do.”

“You have to deal with humans and the way they are wired.”

This must change, Haas said, to invite social scientists to give him a call. “All of a sudden seismologists have talked about social scientists,”emphasized Richard Allen, Director of the Berkeley seismic laboratory leadership development MyShake application. Allen has no effect Science Article.

But social scientists know a fair amount about disaster warnings in General, it is not a good sign for Earthquake Early Warning Project. When the Americans notice of an imminent disaster, possibly a tornado, flood or hurricane, they do not respond quickly. On the contrary, they like to talk about it.

“People do not automatically reply to the warning said,”the leading CAD programs,who also has no effect Science Article. “They hang out, talk with other people. Man is a social animal.”

But this chatter, intended to confirm the information, won’t cut it for earthquake early warning. The whole point is that a earthquake is coming soon—in the A few seconds or ten seconds. This is only half of the message. “When you receive a warning you should expect to take action,”USGS Cochran.

And this is the challenge: when people should be wary of? Cork and Haskell believes that governments should set expectations for people to act when the potential for ground shaking, but the key is, improper shaken is mild, non-destructive, or may not feel to some people. Have Alert small earthquake”your warning people, and maybe even didn’t notice the grip when said,”the Cork. The need to bite out a warning, should the next earthquake is a devastating, historical earthquake. You know, the one that has been missing for more than a century a geologist expect to hit the Golden State hard, just as the earthquake is over.

Los Angeles recently quarreled with the earthquake alerts. After a few earthquake(7. 1 and 6. 4 amplitude)against about 100 miles to La this month, many Los Angeles people expressed frustration that they do not know by ShakeAlertLA application, although the shaking was mild in the distance. Even so, the city lowered the threshold alert from a strength of 4 to 3. Strength of 3 means that a slight shake, maybe like a truck rumbling by your house. This may not be the greatest idea if our goal is to remind people, only when potential damage can occur.

“It is already low to start, and now they set it down,”the Husker.

A buzzing telephone alarm warning of a weak or non-existent earthquake may confuse people and make them ready for future earthquake alerts. “A warning is no good if you don’t know what this means,”said Mika McKinnon, a geophysicist and a disaster researcher with no role in the article.

ButWarning of a mild, non-threatening earthquakes can be a different but very important purposes: California people to remind them to stay in the damn center of earthquake country.

San Andreas Fault in Central California.

San Andreas Fault in Central California.

Image:Images/Lloyd Cluff

A collapsed section on the Interstate 5 after the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

A collapsed section on the Interstate 5 after the 1994 Northridge earthquake.

Image:Images/Marc Solomon

There is an effect of a smaller warning, says Berkeley Allen. “For me, we need to have two different levels of alert,”he said. One is”You are in danger“Alert. He’s just telling people that some shaking will happen. “That’s the plan,”said Allen, but how to achieve it is still a developing country.

A two-stage alarm system may prove to be revolutionary for public education.

“This is a wonderful thing, because it reminds you that you live in earthquake country,”said McKinnon. “I fully expect that will be multi-level, just because each warning system.”

“If you constantly drill it is easy to forget what you’re supposed to do.”

Or, you should not do.

Following Mexico City, the largest in 2017 in the earthquake, a moderate earthquake hit a week later, very few people there, but the city’s early warning system gave people advanced warning anyway(this earthquake hit some of the 370 miles). When the city’s sirens began, some shelter, some evacuation of the building(a common thing in Mexico), this is a stressful event, may have prompted a fatal heart attack, pay attention to the Cork and Haskell. But a man jumped from a window, injuring himself.

“You don’t jump out the window”, emphasizing the Berkeley Allen. Fortunately, there is no evidence that during disasters, all-raw panic”usually involve several people, is short, and is not contagious.” But will almost certainly be some panic. “The answer is, we need to educate people what to do, when you get a warning,”said Alan.

This may sound too trite, but this is reality. Without a mechanism like the state of California Office of emergency services, the establishment of clear expectations, people may react unreasonably vigilant. Alternatively, they may be slow to react, the leading CAD programs, and Social Sciences home. “It called for the need to elaborate education on this topic,”he said.

This is one of the highest cause. “You can train the 39 million people respond to the robots when they get a beep in their cell phone?” Requirements leading CAD programs. No, he said, but you can impress millions of people. The state can drill alert earthquake of the reaction, in the school, this is undoubtedly a worthy investment in the future(which the Golden State’s children do not know the drop, cover, and hold on?)

As for adults, research published this year found that West Bank residents unaware of the significant threats they face, even if they live in serious earthquake country. Overall, the human race is famous for the poverty assessment of risk.

The only alternative for we humans, then, repeat, constantly echoing the message of what the alert means. Everyone knows of Smokey Bear’s message—Thank you to the 75 years of memorable, iconic Government Public Service Announcements.

California's major drawback.

California’s major drawback.

“Education here refers to the familiar warning signal and its real danger,”said John, in seismology and Geoscience College Professor, at the University of Southern California. “In view of the destruction caused by the worst earthquake, quickly, and we can tell the public better.”

In fact, there are obstacles to the front there is a still the progress of the application based on early warning systems. There almost certainly will be false alarms and too-late warning, said to. People may feel confused while driving. But there is widespread optimism about the program between the experts I have already spoken.

“I’m really excited,”said McKinnon. “I really look forward to we have more information, this is what’s going on.”

“I’m glad the country is to it,”said leading CAD programs.

“Our newly adopted ShakeAlertLA and MyShake the application, which certainly feels like progress, and so that the world around me just a little security,”said in.

Although humans may be fickle and deeply rooted in our method, today’s earthquake after the attacks, the warning we, and only we ourselves count.

“I believe in myself and the public act of common sense,”in.



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