By Calculated risk 1/30/2020 10:09:00
The Census Bureau released the residential vacancies and Homeownership Report for Q4 2019.
This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media, to keep track of family formation, homeownership rate, and homeowner and rental vacancy rate. However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of the survey.
This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn’t rely on the absolute number. Others Census Bureau is investigating the differences between the HVS, ACS and decennial census, and analysts probably should not use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.
“National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter of 2019 is 6. 4%, and rental houses and 1. 4%for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate is 6. 4%, not statistically different speeds in the fourth quarter of 2018(6.6%), but 0. 4 percentage points lower than the rate in the third quarter of 2019(6.8 per cent). The homeowner vacancy rate was 1. 4%of the people there was no statistical meaning of the different speed in the fourth quarter of 2018(1.5%), almost unchanged rate in the third quarter of 2019.
The homeownership rate is 65. 1% of the people there was no statistical meaning of the different speed in the fourth quarter of 2018(64.8 per cent), nor from the rate in the third quarter of 2019(also 64. 8 per cent). “
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The red dots are the decennial census homeownership rates of the period from 1 July 1990, 2000 and 2010. Washington International homeownership rate had increased to 65. 1%in the 4th quarter, from 64. 8%in Q3.
I would put more weight in the once-a-decade census numbers. However, in view of the demographic change, the homeownership rate bottomed out.
Washington International homeowner vacancy rate was unchanged at 1. 4%.
Again-this could show the General trend, but I wouldn’t rely on the absolute number.
The rental vacancy rate fell to 6. 4% in Q4.
The quarterly HVS is the most timely survey of the family, but there are many questions about the accuracy of the survey.
Overall, this suggests that the job vacancy has been greatly reduced, and my guess is that homeownership has a bottom and a rental vacancy rate near the end of this cycle.