Calculated risk: Q1GDP forecast: 0.7%to 3. 1%


By Calculated risk 3/06/2020 02:52:00

From Merrill Lynch:

We mark for our market 1Q GDP forecast up to 1. 5% From 1. 0%, while the drop 2 quarter GDP of 0. 6pp for 1. 0%and the 3Q GDP of 0. 2pp to 1. 4%, reflecting the more extensive damage from COVID-19 spread. (Mar6 estimated)
Emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

Based on a downward revision this month of wholesale inventory and reduce U.S. and global trade volume, we reduced our Q1 GDP growth forecast by a fifth to two-fifths of+0.7%(QoQ ar). (Mar6 estimated)

From the New York Fed real-time forecasting of report

The New York Federal Reserve staff nowcasting station in 1.7%, 2020: Q1 And 1. 3%for the year 2020: Q2(Mar6 estimated)

And from the Altanta Fed:GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimates Real GDP growth(seasonally adjusted annual rate)in the first quarter of 2020 is 3. 1 ratio.t May 6, from 2. 7%, in March 2. (Mar6 estimated)

CR note: these early estimates indicate that real GDP growth between 0. 7%and 3. 1% annualized in Q1.

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