BBRG:yield curve and forward the message

Yield curve and forward the message
The question is whether it is in the say anything meaningful about the possibility of a recession.
Bloomberg, February 3, 2020

The yield curve just inverted it.

Driven by fear of a potential coronavirus pandemic, could cause widespread economic disruption, investment capital of the asylum where long-term bonds. This flight to safety caused by the curve of conversion, at least for now.

The Saints will tell you that the yield curve is about as good a prognosticator of the future the recession is Is there. But the inversion of the first occur as early as March 2019, and then a short twist, and only returning to the territory diverted to a lot of the summer.

So far, we’ve avoided a recession and the continued economic chaos along the annual growth rate of slightly more than 2 per cent.

Recently the yield curve turn invites the question: what might trigger the next recession may be what it looks like what? Let us look at some of the things referenced experts and commentators:

Geopolitical events

Technical foam

The Federal Reserve

Continued here


I originally published this in Bloomberg, February 3, 2020. All of my Bloomberg column can be found here and here.

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