Yield curve and forward the message
The question is whether it is in the say anything meaningful about the possibility of a recession.
Bloomberg, February 3, 2020
The yield curve just inverted it.
Driven by fear of a potential coronavirus pandemic, could cause widespread economic disruption, investment capital of the asylum where long-term bonds. This flight to safety caused by the curve of conversion, at least for now.
The Saints will tell you that the yield curve is about as good a prognosticator of the future the recession is Is there. But the inversion of the first occur as early as March 2019, and then a short twist, and only returning to the territory diverted to a lot of the summer.
So far, we’ve avoided a recession and the continued economic chaos along the annual growth rate of slightly more than 2 per cent.
Recently the yield curve turn invites the question: what might trigger the next recession may be what it looks like what? Let us look at some of the things referenced experts and commentators:
The Federal Reserve
I originally published this in Bloomberg, February 3, 2020. All of my Bloomberg column can be found here and here.