2021 Dixie Vodka 400 odds, predictions: Surprising NASCAR at Homestead-Miami picks from proven model


After beginning the 2021 season on the famed 2.5-mile tri-oval and road course at Daytona, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday for the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400. NASCAR modified aerodynamics packages two seasons ago to create more exciting speedway racing, which has resulted in several nail-biting finishes. Expect a tightly-contested race once again when the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 starting lineup takes the green flag at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Denny Hamlin is on top of the 2021 NASCAR standings and is listed as the 9-2 favorite in the latest 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 odds from William Hill Sportsbook after winning the last race in Miami last June. However, there are seven other drivers with 2021 NASCAR at Miami odds of 10-1 or shorter, including defending NASCAR Cup Series champion Chase Elliott at 11-2. Before you scour the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 starting grid and make your NASCAR at Homestead predictions for Sunday, be sure to see the latest 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 picks from SportsLine’s proven projection model. 

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick’s win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. 

At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick’s fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval. Anybody who has followed its NASCAR picks has seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the 2021 NASCAR at Homestead-Miami race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard for the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400.

Top 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 predictions

The model is high on Christopher Bell, even though he’s a 30-1 long shot in the latest 2021 NASCAR at Miami odds. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 26-year-old finished 20th in the standings last season, his first in the NASCAR Cup Series, and recorded seven top-10 finishes, including a fourth-place at Pocono and a third-place at Texas Motor Speedway.

Bell has looked like a serious contender early in the 2021 season, leading 32 laps in the Daytona 500 before inevitably finishing 16th and then capturing his first career NASCAR Cup Series win last week at the 2021 O’Reilly Auto Parts 253. Bell ran eighth at Homestead-Miami last season and is a 16-time winner on the Xfinity Series. Seven of those victories have come at 1.5-mile speedways, so you should lock him into your 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 bets, according to the model.

And a massive shocker: Denny Hamlin, the top Vegas favorite at 9-2, stumbles big time and barely cracks the top five. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 field. After winning seven times in 2020 before a disappointing fourth-place finish in the standings, Hamlin has jumped out to an early lead in the 2021 NASCAR standings with a fifth-place finish in the Daytona 500 and a podium finish on the road course last weekend.

Hamlin won at Homestead-Miami last season, but it was his first finish of better than seventh since a win in 2013. He finished fourth in Phoenix when he needed a win to capture his first-ever NASCAR Cup Series championship, ninth at Texas Speedway two weeks prior, and 15th at Kansas the week before that.

How to make 2021 NASCAR at Homestead-Miami picks

The model is also targeting four other drivers with NASCAR at Homestead-Miami odds 2021 of 10-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all the NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Dixie Vodka 400 leaderboard, all from the model that nailed Hamlin’s win at the 2020 Daytona 500. 

2021 Dixie Vodka 400 odds 

Denny Hamlin 9-2
Chase Elliott 11-2
Kevin Harvick 7-1
Martin Truex Jr. 7-1
Kyle Larson 17-2
Kyle Busch 10-1
Joey Logano 10-1
Brad Keselowski 10-1
Ryan Blaney 12-1
Alex Bowman 22-1
William Byron 25-1
Tyler Reddick 25-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Aric Almirola 40-1
Kurt Busch 40-1
Austin Dillon 60-1
Bubba Wallace 60-1
Matt DiBenedetto 75-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Erik Jones 100-1
Ryan Newman 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Ross Chastain 150-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 250-1
Michael McDowell 500-1
Chris Buescher 500-1
Ryan Preece 1000-1
Daniel Suarez 2000-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
BJ McLeod 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1



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